Archive for June, 2006

The 100 Inning Reliever – A Dying Breed

Thursday, June 15th, 2006

Prior to Tuesday nights game the Reds bullpen boasted the following stats.

178.2 IP - 198 H - 97 ER - 66 BB -125 K - 1.48 WHIP -4.89 ERA

Remove Todd Coffey’s from the equation and the bullpen record looks like this:

144.1 IP - 166 H - 90 ER - 55 BB - 99 K - 1.53 WHIP - 5.61 ERA

On the heels of an 8 game winning streak the world could be beat in most Reds fans eyes, on the heels of that had come a quick 5 game losing streak, this of course stirred the fans and once again the cries for help can be heard by the same boasting Reds fans. There is talk of “rally killing solo home runs” and the need for small ball, others talk of shoring up the left side of the infield defense with an all out position switch (Encarnacion to 1st, Aurilia to 3rd, Phillips to SS. Freel to 2nd base, flip flop Aurilia and Encarnacion, flip Phillips and Lopez and on and on and on)

Currently the starting staff is 1.19 runs per nine better than they were last season, that’s a major jump and one that is tenuous at best as the season progresses and the workloads continue to accumulate. To make up for the future attrition one can only hope for the bullpen to improve

Fact: Prior to Wednesday’s game the last time the Cincinnati bullpen has gone more than 2 innings without letting up a run was May 28th.

So is say screw the Small Ball and screw the “little things” approach, focus on the leaking hole in the bedroom ceiling that’s dripping on the franchise’s bed.

If I had a wish I’d wish for some young middle relievers with movement on their pitches and the ability to pitch 100 innings in relief.

If I had a wish I’d like the 1999 Reds bullpen.

ERA                        DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     IP       AGE
Scott Williamson           2.16     2.41     4.57     93.1     23
Scott Sullivan             1.56     3.01     4.57    113.2     28
Danny Graves               1.49     3.08     4.57    111       25

This triad of stud relievers who ate up huge amounts of innings was the backbone of a Reds staff that boasted 17 pitchers and 9 separate starters over the season, and yet they still won 96 games. 3 relievers who ate up almost 22% of the team’s innings, all three had ERA’s a run and a half better than the league average, it was really something in retrospect, two 100 inning relievers and one knocking on the door. But is it possible that a bullpen like that can, or will exist again in today’s game? Or has the 100-inning reliever started to be squeezed out by pitch counts and the extra man in the bullpen? Finally, was there always a 100-inning type of reliever around for teams to ride?

Reds TV Announcer Chris Welsh said this in a recent interview.

“I really think the evolution of the middle relievers is one of the biggest changes we’ve seen in the last 20 years. What I think is they’ve developed a type of player that comes in and throws 1 or 2 innings and throws very hard and they get them out of there after they’ve faced 6 or 7 batters. The Kyle Farnsworth type of player.”

That type of player has been in the game for the past 30 plus years, but the workload wasn’t as spread out as it is in today’s game and currently the new prototype of super middle reliever is likely being reshaped by the games flow, right under our very eyes. So when (and if) a transformation is completed don’t be surprised by the player it produces, maybe it will a 50 inning, 100K pitcher?

Who knows? Just polish up some stories for the kids about how back in the day the relievers would eat up batters and innings like something you’ve never seen.

I have one that involves Southwest Airlines and Rollie Fingers, but that’s not pertinent to this story.

Of course pondering relievers and their workload wasn’t always something the fans of the game spent their time doing. When the ball was deader, the game a bit slower and the sun shone on most of the games being played a complete game by the pitcher was the norm. Below are the Reds pitchers who have completed 20 or more games in consecutive seasons. Not one Reds pitcher has completed 20 or more games since the 1940’s.

Bob Ewing                1903-08    6
Bucky Walters            1939-44    6
Noodles Hahn             1900-04    5
Eppa Rixey               1921-23    3
Red Lucas                1931-33    3
Paul Derringer           1938-40    3
Bill Phillips            1901-02    2
Andy Coakley             1907-08    2
Fred Toney               1916-17    2
Dutch Ruether            1919-20    2
Johnny Vander Meer       1942-43    2

The above was the norm, the blueprint for pitching success in the days of wool suits, 12-cent dinners and women named Florence.

However this all started to change in the thirties, in 1937 White Sox hurler Clint Brown appeared in 53 games and pitched 100 innings all without starting a game, making him the first pitcher in MLB history to accomplish that feat. Brown was a depression era Scott Sullivan, throwing slightly underhanded and with a side armed approach. This season began a slow process in the evolution of the workhorse reliever, creating a niche for a pitcher that could toss 100 innings and do the majority of it from the bullpen (usually starting only in an emergency.)

Once this feat was accomplished it took a few years for the rest of baseball to catch on and the offensive surge in the postwar era created a greater need to temper the bats with fresh arms and then the concept took off. Since 1937 the feat has been accomplished 418 times, with the Reds and the Giants being the teams having the most players on the list (30). It’s easy to see how the Reds have so many on that list, as a team they have a less than league average ERA since 1946 and still have a winning record, they have to be getting a quality pitching performance from somewhere other than their starting staff for over 50 years.

Between 1946 and 1968 a total of 103 pitchers tallied 100 innings in a season with a start or less. In 1969 the division format and expansion changed the games makeup, this along with the reduction of the mounds height and the eventual introduction of the designated hitter helped decrease what had become a stagnate offensive game in the 60’s. This of course posed a new problem to managers throughout the game, and that was how to beat the increased offense that was now creeping slowly. Many managers in the game took different paths, and all hoped to segue into a balance that could combat the offensive onslaught.

One method was the Billy Martin method of riding as many starters as you can (example Joe Coleman and Mickey Lolich combine for 662 IP and 45 CG) and riding a reliever in over a 100 innings (Fred Sherman.) Approaches like that led to unique situations where 3 pitchers could eat up 57% of your total innings pitched and 2 of them were starters. Another method include the Sparky Anderson method of spreading the wealth amongst many starters and having a horse like Pedro Borbon eat up those tweener innings between the starters and the closer.

No discussion of the 100 inning reliever can be complete without pulling out one of its greatest boosters, in 1973 the Kansas City Royals hired Jack McKeon to be their manager, McKeon would be in and out of baseball in the front office and on the bench for the next 30 years, retiring in 2004. During his time frame as a mover and shaker the 100-inning reliever bloomed, flowered and apparently is on the way out the door as a normal event. Jack McKeon liked his hard working relievers and apparently the rest of baseball in the 1970’s and 1980’s did as well. Jack christened his first season as a major league manager by getting Doug Bird into enough games to top 100 innings. Bird turned into a fine reliever and was converted to a starter by Whitey Herzog during the mid 70’s before he ended up back in the pen.

From 1970-1979 122 relievers threw over 100 innings with 1 or less start, in 1978 six men did it in the American League, three of them pitched for Jack McKeon.

ERA                      YEAR     DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     IP
Elias Sosa               1978     1.14     2.64     3.78    109
Bob Lacey                1978     0.77     3.01     3.78    119.2
Dave Heaverlo            1978     0.52     3.25     3.78    130

That’s getting the best out of you a bullpen arm, that’s for sure. It’s tiny pitching events like this that fueled the reliever as savior movement that grew in the late 70’s and the pattern continued to grow, from 1980-1989 the total of 100 inning relievers was 137 and suddenly the Sutter’s and the Fingers were bigger than the Hillers and the Stu Millers of the prior generation, they became major players in the new free agent market as teams jostled to obtain these workhorses and stoppers to fill the gaps that the game had created in the middle to late innings.

Below are the pitchers who had the most consecutive seasons with 100 IP less than 1 start and a plus era

Rollie Fingers           1974-78    5
Duane Ward               1988-92    5
Hoyt Wilhelm             1952-55    4
Jack Baldschun           1961-64    4
Ron Perranoski           1962-65    4
Mike Marshall            1972-75    4
Kent Tekulve             1976-79    4
Dan Quisenberry          1982-85    4
Dick Radatz              1962-64    3
Pedro Borbon             1973-75    3
Sparky Lyle              1976-78    3
Enrique Romo             1978-80    3
Bob Stanley              1982-84    3
Scott Sullivan           1999-01    3

These are you stars of the genre, many relief legends in there and couple of Reds as well.

The cherry on the sundae of the workhorse relievers lifespan was the Cy Young award that Mark Davis obtained in 1989, a feat that still to this day is debated as being the worst Cy Young award in the history of the game, an award that is equal to Rafael Palmeiro’s last gold glove.

Not up for debate is the ridiculousness of the contract that he received for that performance.

By the way his manager that year was Jack McKeon.

In the 1990’s it was a different game, the offense increased even more an extra body often was in the bullpen and not on the bench, this added pitcher ate up more innings and pitch counts for all pitchers started to be taken more seriously thus the number of 100-inning relievers began to drop and by the end of the 1990’s only 33 relievers topped 100 innings pitched and only 78 topped 90 innings pitched, 4 of the 100 IP guys were Reds and 10 of the 90 IP guys were Reds.

Seven of those Reds pitched for Jack McKeon.

In 1997 Ray Knight was jettisoned from the Reds managerial seat, in hopes of providing some calmness to a clubhouse that was in disarray the Reds hired Jack McKeon, a man known more for his GM tenure and cigars then his managerial career.

With him came a both of the old school 70’s approach to the use of the bullpen, as a canvas McKeon had more than a few pitchers to work with, on the field the Reds starting staff almost begged that that be the approach that be taken.

Between 1997 and 2000 the Reds had quite the workhorse bullpen, and beating the league average in ERA was pretty much par for the course, and most of this can be attributed to the usage patterns created by Jack McKeon.

ERA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
ERA                      YEAR     ERA       G       IP       ERA
Jeff Shaw                1997     2.38       78     94.2     1.83
Scott Williamson         1999     2.41       62     93.1     2.16
Danny Graves             2000     2.56       66     91.1     2.08
Scott Sullivan           1999     3.01       79     113.2    1.56
Danny Graves             1999     3.08       75     111      1.49
Scott Sullivan           1997     3.24       59     97.1     0.97
Danny Graves             1998     3.32       62     81.1     0.92
Scott Sullivan           2000     3.47       79     106.1    1.17
Stan Belinda             1997     3.71       84     99.1     0.49
Scott Sullivan           1998     5.21       67     102      -.97

McKeon was a throwback in his time as manager of the Reds and the Marlins he has averaged only 382 relievers used in a season, this is in an era that many mangers use over 450, some 500 and only a select few under 400 (Pinella, Torre and pre Texas Showalter)

While this approach was being considered a norm in Cincinnati it was dieing on the vine throughout the rest of baseball, with the peak of the post strike era occurring in the incredible offensive year of 1999 when a total of 6 relievers topped 100 innings with less than 2 starts.

At the end of the 2000 season McKeon was let go by the Reds, however that didn’t stop Bob Boone from working Sullivan for more than 100 innings, in 2001 Sully logged 103 innings, since then no Reds reliever has topped 80 innings pitched.

In the AL s Scott Shields is the most recent man to top 100 IP with less than 2 starts, and that was in 2004. The last NL pitcher was Guillermo Mota for the Dodgers in 2003. In 2004 during a run at the title the Marlins obtained Mota in a trade, manager McKeon probably saw a 100 inning reliever coming his way and prepared to use him to help temper the trips he was making to the mound, in the only season in which had to use over 400 relievers. Alas it was not to be and The Fish fell to third and McKeon was given his walking papers.

In 2005 no relievers reached 100 innings pitched, currently 2 relievers in MLB are on target for 100 innings pitched (Salomon Torres and Scott Proctor) Slowly coddled arms are being watched in the bullpen and the workload is being pared down and spread about.

Since 2000 only 5 “true” relievers have topped 100 innings pitched, since 1937 only 21% of the 418 relievers to achieve the feat were over 32 years old.

Once again the game is changing in front of our eyes, forcing us to reexamine what we might have thought was the norm in the game, forcing us to admit the game is a malleable force that changes with times. Forcing us to realize that the Reds bullpen is too old to accomplish magnificent feats, too old to eat up innings like the fans think they should, too old to carry the Reds to late inning stability.

55 years of Pivot Play – Reds Shortstops

Friday, June 9th, 2006

Big weekend for fans of the obscure back and forth sports in America the World Cup begins and the Stanley Cup continues, I for one am excited, coupled with the fact that Visio ate my Information Architecture project that was due for delivery today (now pushed) I’m outta here for the weekend, in honor of my lack of time to devote to the minutiae of the week Like Jason Schmidt matching a 102 year old team strikeout record I’m going to have to go to the steamer trunk and break out some old stuff to keep the site somewhat fresh.

Therefore I’m going to post a Reds piece I wrote last year on the teams Shortstop legacy, so enjoy that and the fact that a record for team strikouts can stretch over 102 years and a whole country, that’s part of what makes baseball so damn special.

Every generation throws a hero up the pop charts Medicine is magical and magical is art.
.

Being a Cincinnati fan you can’t be anything but aware that the Reds have had essentially 4 shortstops since 1950. From 1950-2004 sixty-seven men have played shortstop for the Reds, a total of 8680 games.

The amazing fact within this fact is that 80% of those games were played by only four men, equally amazing is 51% of them were played by only two men.

Spoiled is the Reds fan in his shortstop history, but how spoiled are we?

Here are the American League and National League games leaders for shortstops since 1950.

GAMES                            G       AVG      OBA      SLG
1    Luis Aparicio              2599     .262     .311     .343
2    Cal Ripken                 2381     .277     .345     .454
3    Alan Trammell              2293     .285     .352     .415
4    Bert Campaneris            2213     .258     .310     .342
5    Omar Vizquel               2138     .275     .341     .358
6    Mark Belanger              1962     .227     .300     .280
7    Ozzie Guillen              1818     .264     .285     .338
8    Ed Brinkman                1812     .224     .280     .300
9    Robin Yount                1549     .286     .331     .427
10   Greg Gagne                 1524     .254     .299     .387

GAMES                            G       AVG      OBA      SLG
1    Ozzie Smith                2573     .262     .337     .328
2    Dave Concepcion            2300     .267     .322     .359
3    Larry Bowa                 2247     .260     .300     .320
4    Barry Larkin               2180     .295     .371     .444
5    Roy McMillan               2093     .243     .314     .321
6    Garry Templeton            2047     .272     .305     .369
7    Chris Speier               1960     .246     .326     .345
8    Dick Groat                 1929     .286     .330     .366
9    Bill Russell               1911     .266     .312     .337
10   Don Kessinger              1852     .253     .315     .313

1500 appears to be the benchmark for extreme longevity at the SS position, with 2000 being the number achieved by the upper echelon.

In the AL you have 5 players with 2000 games started at shortstop, in the NL you have 6 players, the AL has 3 players who started at least 2000 of their games with one team. In the AL Ripken, Vizquel and Trammel hold that honor and in the NL Concepcion and Larkin can make claim to it as well. In modern MLB history there have been a total of 18 men who logged 2000 appearances at shortstop, 72% of them appeared after World War 2 and 3 of them were Reds. (Roy McMillan split his games amongst 3 teams, 1348 as a Red)

It was McMillan who began the string in 1951 when he appeared in 85 games for the Reds, from 1952-1958 he played in over 145 games at the shortstop position for the Reds.

In 1960 Leo Cardenas appeared in Cincinnati that season he shared the SS duties with Roy and his play must have convinced Bill DeWitt to move ahead with his first deal as the new Reds owner that winter when flipped McMillan to the Braves Jay and Pizarro in December of 1960.

1157 games later the Reds entered the 1969 season and experienced the first year in 18 seasons that McMillan or Cardenas didn’t man the shortstop position.

In the last full season at Crosley and the first full season of division play, the Reds split the position amongst 2 players with Chico Ruiz getting some time there as well. Not the most stellar group they posted below average fielding numbers and did nothing to further solidified a position that was a noted weakness prior to the start of the season.

GAMES                             G        A        E       PCT
1    Woody Woodward               93      248       14     .966
2    Darrel Chaney                91      191       17     .947
3    Chico Ruiz                   29       58        1     .989
4    Tommy Helms                   4        3        0    1.000

The position wasn’t buoyed by the .233/.308/.277 line they produced as a group, and Chic Ruiz probably left the greatest impression that season when he “play” attacked Chief Noc-A-Homa in a mock Indian raid that found the Reds shortstop being flipped by the mascot, much to the amusement of all the Reds who revealed in his antics.

Two months later Chico was an Angel and the Reds were talking internally of counting on a youngster named Dave Concepcion. It took a couple of years for Davey to fully grab the job (a common SS occurrence is slow growth) and when he did grab it he held on tight and stayed long enough to watch both Pete and Tony leave and come back.


I’ll be where the eagles flying higher and higher.
Gonna be your man in motion
All I need is a pair of wheels.
Take me where the future’s lying; St. Elmo’s fire.

In June 1985 the world was hit in the face with The Brat Pack ensemble St Elmos Fire. In memory the whole she-bang was a monumental waste of time that I’d rather forget about.

In other news from June of 1985, the Reds used their 1st round pick on a college position player for the first time ever.

The prior year pitcher Pat Pacillo had been the first college player ever chosen by the Reds in the 1st round. The fact that this occurred in the 20th year of the drafts existence was not lost on Bill James who addressed the Reds drafting strategy in his 1984 Baseball Abstract.

The position player?

Barry Larkin, shortstop, University of Michigan.

1985 also is the last year that Dave Concepcion ever played over 100 games at shortstop in a season

Like Roy McMillan Davey was able to share his spot with his eventual successor and that alone avoided a gap in the SS legacy since the earlier one in 1969.

That’s quite the legacy

From 1970-2004 the Reds had 10 players who appeared in at least 100 games at SS

GAMES                            G        G
1    Dave Concepcion            2178     2178
2    Barry Larkin               2085     2085
T3   Pokey Reese                 222      222
T3   Darrel Chaney               222      222
5    Juan Castro                 183      183
6    Woody Woodward              162      162
7    Jeff Branson                149      149
8    Tom Foley                   135      135
9    Kurt Stillwell              131      131
10   Felipe Lopez                101      101

Some interesting names in that list, Chaney shared some time with Concepcion early on as did Woodward, who became better known as a GM than he was a player. Former 1st round draft choice Stillwell gave Larkin a run for the job early on, but like Pokey he was not all that and a bag of chips and soon found his way out of town.

In the same time period that the Reds had 10 players with 100 appearances the Braves can claim 18 with 100 appearances.

In the same time period that The Reds had 4 players with 200 or more appearances at SS the Braves and Mets could claim 8 players and Montreal 9.

To really touch on the spoiled nature of the Reds fan and the shortstop position let’s take a look at the Pre 1990’s expansion National League teams and see who holds their games played at SS and how they did.

1946-2004

GAMES                        G      AVG      OBA      SLG
Dave Concepcion            2300     .267     .322     .359
Barry Larkin               2180     .295     .371     .444
Roy McMillan               1348     .249     .326     .332
Leo Cardenas               1157     .261     .313     .377
Johnny Logan               1351     .270     .330     .384
Jeff Blauser               1024     .268     .361     .416

Padres
Garry Templeton            1254     .252     .294     .340

Giants
Rich Aurilia                993     .278     .331     .444

Astros
Roger Metzger              1021     .229     .291     .291
Craig Reynolds             1004     .256     .288     .352

Dodgers
Bill Russell               1911     .266     .312     .337
Pee Wee Reese              1676     .277     .375     .396

Maury Wills                1593     .281     .331     .332
Expos
Orlando Cabrera             904     .267     .315     .405

Phillies
Larry Bowa                 1739     .264     .301     .324

Pirates
Dick Groat                 1258     .290     .329     .370
Jay Bell                   1106     .269     .339     .402
Gene Alley                 1096     .256     .312     .356

Mets
Bud Harrelson              1322     .234     .324     .287

Cardinals
Ozzie Smith                1990     .272     .350     .344
Dal Maxvill                1100     .222     .299     .265

Cubs
Don Kessinger              1648     .255     .315     .314
Shawon Dunston             1254     .267     .295     .407
Ernie Banks                1216     .290     .353     .552

The Reds are the only team a player with 2000 starts and they have 2 they also are the only team with 4 players with 1000 starts. An amazing sign of stability at a position that is very volatile.

Little surprises around every corner, but nothing dangerous!

Since 1950 the Reds can also claim to have were the best hitting shortstops , plating a ½ a run better per 27 outs than all other NL shortstops.

RUNS CREATED/GAME               DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE      G
1    Reds                       0.51     4.22     3.71    10455
2    Cubs                       0.37     4.06     3.69     9958
3    Cardinals                  0.30     4.00     3.70    10931
4    Rockies                    0.27     4.46     4.19     2087
5    Diamondbacks               0.20     4.38     4.18     1394
6    Pilots/Brewers             0.11     4.31     4.20     1335
7    Dodgers                    0.01     3.71     3.70    10441
8    Expos                      0.01     3.64     3.64     6844
9    Braves                     -.07     3.63     3.70    10836
10   Pirates                    -.08     3.63     3.71    10270
11   Giants                     -.14     3.59     3.73    10817
12   Astros                     -.19     3.38     3.57     9015
13   Marlins                    -.20     4.00     4.19     2356
14   Phillies                   -.22     3.45     3.67    10254
15   Padres                     -.36     3.27     3.63     7017
16   Mets                       -.45     3.09     3.54     8207

The Reds might have the heir apparent to the linage in Lopez…. if his fielding and contract keep him around… the Boros factor will weigh heavily in the upcoming off-season’s as the Reds enter the weekend with the most errors on the left side of the infield in MLB. It’s a wait and see moment for the fans of a team that has had the pleasure essentially watching 4 guys play the same position for 55 years.

That’s something special and that’s what makes baseball so different than the back and forths.

The Draft – Reds 1st Rounders

Monday, June 5th, 2006

I’m not much of a prospect watcher, I don’t care for college ball, nor do I follow the guys in the minor leagues. It’s not my thing and most likely never will be. It takes mountains of research and a love of scouting to suck it all in, so kudo’s to the guys that do that well, the Goldsteins, Sickles and the millions Baseball America reading fans out there salivating about this weeks draft are in heaven. For that I have a bit of envy, it’s a part of the game that needs to be filled and well there isn’t enough time in my day for it.

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